You can feel it, can’t you?
Markets drift. Headlines soften. Volatility naps. It’s all a little… eerie. This isn’t calm, it's the eye of the storm. A clear patch in the sky while the walls of weather circle round us. The question isn’t if the wind changes. It’s whether you’ve used this calm to prepare.
Below is a straight-talk map of the clouds gathering at the edge of our “artificial peace,” and what sensible people can do now, before the rain starts.
The Budget That Won’t Be Kind
Rachel Reeves’s Autumn Budget won’t be a giveaway. The Treasury’s cupboard is thin, and the political incentives point one way: more revenue, not less. That can mean:
Stealth hikes via frozen thresholds that quietly pull more people into higher bands.
Capital gains and property tweaks that bite investors and homeowners.
Nibbles at ISA rules or allowances that make cash feel less protected.
What it means: after-tax, after-inflation returns matter more than ever. The headline rate is a decoy; the net is what hits you.
Yes, the worst of the surge is behind us. No, that doesn’t mean we’re safe. Energy, wages, food, freight, any shock can re-ignite sticky inflation. And once the market sniffs a second flare-up, rate-cut hopes fade and risk assets wobble.
What it means: inflation doesn’t have to be raging to be destructive; a slow burn erodes cash just the same. Plan assuming your money needs to outrun a moving target.
The Middle East remains a hair-trigger. A single strike on the wrong asset, energy, shipping, or a high-profile target, and you get a rapid repricing of oil, insurance, and risk appetite. This is the kind of shock that jumps straight from the front page to your portfolio.
What it means: Build resilience for gap risk, the type of move that occurs between the market close and the open.
From Ukraine’s front to cables, ports and power, Europe’s security picture is a long, slow squeeze punctuated by surprises. It’s less about headline victories and more about infrastructure fragility, pipelines, shipping lanes, grids, and data. A “small” incident can have significant market consequences.
What it means: don’t confuse the absence of headlines with the absence of risk. Tail events in Europe carry fat consequences for energy and FX.
The US remains the world’s balance sheet. Debt ever higher, deficits persistent, and politics more combative by the week. When issuance climbs and buyers hesitate, bond yields remind everyone who sets the terms. Add in a noisy election cycle, and it’s easy to see why “safe” can suddenly feel expensive.
What it means: dollar moves and Treasury yields are the market’s pulse. If the pulse spikes, everything else must adjust — equities, property, and yes, your borrowing costs.
Tariffs are taxes by another name — and they land in your basket through prices. A new round of measures between major blocs (US–China, EU–China, ad-hoc national responses) would pressure supply chains and margins, keeping inflation sticky and growth soft. That’s stagflation’s calling card.
What it means: expect more “policy shocks” that arrive as headlines but are billed to you at the checkout.
Use it. That’s the entire point of an eye of the storm.
1) Reframe returns as after-tax, after-inflation.
If your cash yields 4% but inflation and tax take 3.5%, you’re running hard to stand still.
2) Diversify across risk sources, not just tickers.
Own things that don’t all fail for the same reason: rate spikes, energy shocks, policy blunders, cyber events.
3) Shorten vulnerability, lengthen resilience.
Reduce exposure to sudden refinancing shocks. Maintain an emergency liquidity runway measured in months, not weeks.
4) Stress-test your plan.
Ask: What if tax thresholds stay frozen, CGT bites harder, or property costs rise at sale instead of purchase? Better to be “over-prepared” than over-exposed.
5) Hold some assets that don’t depend on promises.
When policy and politics get noisy, tangible stores of value earn their keep. (We favour UK legal-tender coins for their well-known tax advantages and next-day certainty.)
6) Separate trade from hedge.
Speculation seeks upside; hedging buys time. Don’t confuse the two. A good hedge looks boring right up until it looks brilliant.
7) Document your rules now.
In a storm, you won’t rise to the occasion; you’ll fall to your preparation—pre-decide thresholds for rebalancing, de-risking, or adding protection.
It all feels strangely quiet. That feeling is the signal. Calm like this doesn’t last, and it doesn’t repeat. You get one clean window to prepare, and you’re standing in it.
Use it to:
Trim the exposures that only work when everything is perfect.
Add the ballast that works when nothing is.
Shift from hope to policy: your own personal policy for risk, tax, and purchasing power.
When the wind picks up, a Budget headline, a bond tantrum, a geopolitical jolt, or another tariff turn will make it too late to build the roof. Roofs get built now.
Be early. Be prepared. And if you want a practical, numbers-first look at turning some devaluing pounds into something designed to outlast storms, we can run your scenario and show you options, calmly, while it’s still calm.
While my savings feel like they’re on a diet, gold looks like it’s been in the gym- Kane White, CEO.