Hello again.
We are living through a period that many people describe as uncertain, volatile, even dystopian at times, I would agree.
But instead of reacting emotionally, I want to do something far more intelligent.
I want to look at history.
Not predictions, not guarantees, just patterns.
Mark Twain is often credited with saying:
“History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”
And when you study gold over modern financial history, certain rhymes become impossible to ignore.
The Core Drivers That Have Historically Pushed Gold Higher... Throughout modern financial history, gold has tended to strengthen during specific environments. Let’s break this down simply...
1. War and Geopolitical Conflict
Major conflicts increase uncertainty, currency risk, and capital movement into perceived safe haven assets for protection.
Examples include:
* World War I
* World War II
* 1970s Middle East conflicts
* 1990 Gulf War
* 2001–2003 Middle East escalation
* 2022 Russia–Ukraine conflict, on all of the above, the Gold price move in the same directon.
2. High Inflation
When the purchasing power of currency declines, gold has historically acted as a store of value.
Examples:
* 1970s inflation crisis
* Post-2008 monetary expansion
* 2020–2022 global inflation spike, again, the Gold price went the same way.
3. Currency Debasement and Money Printing
Large-scale monetary expansion has often coincided with gold rallies. (Printing money out of nowhere).
Examples:
* Post-1971 end of the gold standard
* 2008 Global Financial Crisis stimulus
* Pandemic-era liquidity injections
4. Financial Crises and Banking Instability
When confidence in the banking system weakens, gold demand tends to rise.
Examples:
* 2008 Global Financial Crisis
* 2011 Eurozone debt crisis
* 2023 regional US bank failures
5. Recessions and Economic Contraction
During downturns, investors often rotate into defensive assets.
6. Falling Real Interest Rates
When interest rates sit below inflation, holding cash becomes less attractive relative to gold.
7. Central Bank Buying
When sovereign institutions accumulate gold reserves, it creates structural demand. Record purchases have been seen in recent years.
8. Weakening US Dollar
Gold is typically priced in dollars. A weaker dollar has often supported higher gold prices.
9. Supply Constraints
New gold discoveries have been declining, and production takes years to bring online, now costs more and takes a lot longer. From discovery to refined Gold, it typically, throughout history, takes roughly 10-20 years, on average.
10. Loss of Confidence in Government or Monetary Policy
When trust erodes, gold historically strengthens.
Now let me ask a calm and rational question: Does it feel like some of these factors are present today? Or perhaps more than some?
That is not a prediction.
That is an observation.
Recent Performance, over the last 12 months, gold has risen by over 60%.
Over the last three years, over 143%.
Over the last five years, over 190%.
Over the last ten years, over 339%.
Those are historical performance figures. They are not guarantees. They are simply what has happened, have a look for yourself here- https://goldprice.org/
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/18/us/politics/us-military-iran.html
At the time of writing, gold recently moved from approximately £3,620 to £3,793 within days, a move of roughly 5%. One of the contributing factors often cited in such moves is volatility linked to geopolitical developments.
History shows that periods of heightened global uncertainty have frequently coincided with stronger gold performance.
Not always.
But often enough to be studied seriously.
My Personal Strategy
Let me be very clear.
I am not suggesting anyone place all of their wealth into gold.
I am not promising future gains.
I am not predicting specific price levels.
Personally, I hold gold as a long-term store of value. My strategy is not short-term speculation. It is preservation and patience.
Gold is considered a high-risk asset due to price volatility. It can fall as well as rise. Any allocation decision should reflect individual circumstances and risk tolerance.
For me, gold is not about buying headlines.
It is about long-term positioning in an uncertain world.
A Final Thought
If volatility historically supports gold…
And volatility is elevated…
Then perhaps it is rational to at least pay attention.
Would you jump from a plane without a parachute?
Would you dive deep without oxygen?
Preparation is not panic.
It is prudence.
Oh, one more point. Knowing what I know about history, monetary policy and geopolitical cycles, I would not be surprised to see continued investor demand for gold while uncertainty remains elevated.
Of course, gold prices can rise or fall and nothing in this article constitutes financial advice.
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Important Notice
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. All opinions expressed are personal views. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of gold can go down as well as up, and investors may get back less than they invest. Always consider your personal financial situation and seek independent professional advice before making investment decisions.