Hello again,
In a rapidly changing world, it is important to stay up to date with what is happening globally, beyond the smoke screens that governments often deploy. For gold collectors and those interested in holding gold, it is crucial to understand the main drivers of price and what is currently on the table.
Gold has a powerful advantage over many other assets. We can clearly observe how it has historically behaved during the following conditions.
Inflation
When the cost of living rises and money buys less, gold has historically held its value.
Currency devaluation
When governments increase money supply, currencies tend to weaken. In many historical cases, gold has strengthened relative to those currencies.
Financial crises
Bank failures, market crashes, and recessions have historically pushed investors towards gold. This data is openly available and well documented.
Geopolitical instability
Wars, global tension, and political uncertainty have often driven demand for tangible assets during volatile periods.
Low confidence in governments or banks
When trust declines, people often look for assets outside the traditional financial system.
Central bank buying
When central banks increase gold reserves, supply tightens, which has historically supported prices.
Rising debt levels
As government debt increases, concerns around sustainability often grow, increasing interest in defensive assets.
Low or negative interest rates
When savings earn little or nothing, gold can appear more attractive by comparison.
After many years helping people protect their hard earned money, I have seen these forces play out repeatedly. I want to keep this simple, not turn it into something complicated or overwhelming.
Let me break this down through the glasses I wear.
Whether we focus on recession, central bank gold buying, rising debt levels, financial crises, or war, one point feels irrefutable to me. They all create volatility.
What stands out today is that we are not dealing with just one of these forces in isolation. We are seeing multiple drivers of volatility unfolding at the same time.
When gold is starving hungry, the only thing it consumes is volatility.
Historically, gold has reached and broken new all time highs during periods of heightened uncertainty. So here is the question I would like you to consider.
Over the next two to five years, do you believe the global landscape is likely to become more volatile, or calmer?
If your answer is more volatile, then you are not alone. I share that view.
Here is the analogy I use.
Think of volatility like bad weather rolling in.
You do not need to know the exact day the storm will arrive.
You do not need to know how severe it will be.
But when the sky darkens, the wind picks up, and the forecast worsens, people tend to prepare before the storm, not during it.
You buy the umbrella when it is available, not when everyone else is already soaked and the shelves are empty.
So if we believe, with no promises or guarantees, that conditions may deteriorate rather than improve, the question becomes simple.
Are we buying gold while it is still on the shelf?
I am.
Now, I invite you into my time machine.
We can look back at the data openly available to us and we can first of all, stop in 2007/2008, the beating heart of the last recession, remember it? Norther Rock, The Leman Brothers? big long queue out side high-street banks? I do, it was terrible. People lost life savings, under the umbrella that they fought they could trust, need I say anymore.
During the global financial crisis between 2007 and 2009, markets experienced a severe stress test. Equity markets fell by around 50 percent from peak to trough, meaning portfolios were significantly reduced before any recovery began. At the same time, interest rates were cut sharply, and once inflation was taken into account, bank savings lost real purchasing power. Over that same period, gold moved in the opposite direction, rising by approximately 70 percent as uncertainty increased. This historical example is often referenced to demonstrate how gold has behaved during periods of heightened volatility, rather than as an indication of future performance.
This is very important, maybe now more than ever before.
The position, both financially and geopolitically feel like they are aiding towards more volatility and more volatility (possibly higher Gold prices).
Now let's have a look at war...
War period: 2001 to 2021
Gold price (USD):
2001: ~$270 per ounce
2011 peak during the conflict: ~$1,900 per ounce
That represents roughly a 7x increase, or around +600 percent at peak during the war period.
What mattered:
Prolonged conflict
Rising government debt
Currency debasement
Financial instability alongside war
Gold responded to long lasting uncertainty, not headlines. This looked like roughly 30% per year over the 20 year conflict broken down!
Now we will spin our heads towards Financial crises, this is important because of the current position we are in now, (I think we are near a huge financial full out).
The last Financial Crisis was mainly caused by greed (shock) subprime mortgages and the Banks almost broke the earth! Let me attempt to break it down...
Now, let me invite you into a brief time machine.
We can look back to 2007 and 2008, the beating heart of the last major recession. Northern Rock, Lehman Brothers, queues outside high street banks. Many people lost life savings under systems they believed they could trust.
During the global financial crisis between 2007 and 2009, equity markets fell by around 50 percent from peak to trough. Interest rates were cut sharply, and once inflation was taken into account, bank savings lost purchasing power. Over the same period, gold moved in the opposite direction, rising by approximately 70 percent. This example is often referenced to illustrate how gold has historically behaved during periods of stress, not as an indication of future performance.
This context feels particularly relevant today.
2001 gold price: approximately $270 per ounce
2011 peak during the conflict: approximately $1,900 per ounce
This represents an increase of around 600 percent at peak during the conflict period.
What mattered was not headlines, but prolonged uncertainty, rising debt, currency debasement, and wider financial instability. Gold responded to long term conditions, not short term news.
The 2007–2008 crisis was largely driven by excessive leverage, poor lending standards, and the mispricing of risk. When trust collapsed, governments were forced to intervene to stabilise the system.
During this period, gold performed as follows in GBP:
Start of 2007: approximately £330 per ounce
End of 2009: approximately £700 per ounce
This equates to roughly a 110 percent increase over the recessionary period.
Illustrative example only:
£100,000 held in gold over this time would have increased materially as volatility deepened. This demonstrates historical behaviour, not a forecast.
£20,000 converted into gold over the last 12 months: approximately £33,000
£20,000 converted into gold over the last 5 years: approximately £50,000
£20,000 converted into gold over the last 10 years: approximately £90,000
These figures are based on historical price movements and are provided for illustrative purposes only.
British legal tender gold coins are currently exempt from Capital Gains Tax under UK law.
As always, this information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Gold prices can rise or fall, and individuals should carry out their own research and make decisions based on their personal circumstances.
Kane White: "I personally can see very clearly what is starting to unravel in front of our eye's. Once you know what to look for, it all becomes very clear and more importantly, the solution to the problems turns Gold".
All of the factors that have ever sent the price of Gold up to New All Time Highs, seems to be on the table, right now, and at the same time. I look at the set up, and I believe it is in my (Gold Holder's) favour.
Let's look at the facts on how Gold has performed in a numerical way.
Little Break down...
20k converted into Gold over the last 12 months = 33k+
20k converted into Gold over the last 5 years = 50k+
20k converted into Gold over the last 10 years (hold onto your seat) = 90k+
Of course, do your own research (and be amazed) now is a good time to buy Gold.
I hope this helps you understand where I see Gold going.
This information is provided for educational and illustrative purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The price of gold can go down as well as up, and market conditions may change. Clients should make their own independent decisions and, where appropriate, seek professional advice before entering into any transaction.